Here is the brand-new climate change impacts study from the IPCC.
Thanks to The Guardian for providing a link to it.
I posted the link to the report on my page too:
(Coloradans for Responsible Energy and Environmental Policy)
Some key findings: Up to 7 meters of sea level rise due to sustained warming above 1 C and below 4 C due to loss of Polar and Greenland ice-caps.
(Even though there is still no mention of Arctic natural methane emissions)
Very high confidence of extreme and worsening drought, catastrophic wildfire, loss of soil moisture, crop loss, etc in dry regions.
Further loss of glacial cover worldwide, rising snow levels, melting permafrost at high latitudes and at high elevations, high confidence.
Their assessment of future climate change under their RCP 2.6 low-emission scenario appears to be far too rosy, as it claims that we can hold warming to 1.5 C above pre-industrial temperatures if we rapidly move toward GHG emissions reductions, while Michael Mann's recent Scientific American report found broaching the 2 C level by 2036, which is virtually impossible to prevent.
Their RCP 8.0 high-emission scenario sees Arctic warming as high as 11.7 C by 2080-2100, which would mean catastrophic coastal flooding and other disastrous issues, including massive numbers of climate change, water-scarcity, and food supply scarcity refugees. RCP 8.0 also sees warming of as much as 4-6 C across the Continental US.
So, according to this report, we have until 2050 to reduce GHG emissions by 80-90%, though the issue with Arctic and high-altitude natural methane emissions still must be included in any such forecast to make an accurate assessment.
Otherwise, to be on the safe side, we should assume an error on the side of aggressive climate change.